https://link.foreignpolicy.com/view/644279f41a7f1f1e29de6831me6z4.6do/c7cf4b32
‘We Think We Have a Deal’
[But has Hezbollah agreed to the likely unilateral US concession of Lebanese sovereignty to Israel?][
The Blue Line dividing Israel to the left and Lebanon to the right is seen from a United Nations peacekeeping base in Lebanon on Aug. 16.Chris McGrath/Getty Images
The Israeli cabinet will vote on a cease-fire proposal with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Tuesday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly approved the agreement “in principle” late Sunday. The U.S.-backed deal would establish a 60-day truce, entail the Israeli military and Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and deploy regular Lebanese Army troops to the border region within two months, effectively creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River.
An accord could be announced “within hours,” said Israeli Ambassador to the United States Mike Herzog. Details are still being negotiated; however, Lebanese Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that there are “no serious obstacles” left to begin implementation.
Diplomacy has largely focused on restoring United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war by establishing the 75-mile Blue Line, a de facto border between Israel and Lebanon. The negotiating parties hope that such an agreement would allow hundreds of thousands of citizens on both sides to return to their homes after heavy bombardments forced them to flee.
Following pressure from Netanyahu to cement Israel’s right to self-defense in the cease-fire deal, the U.S. proposal reportedly agreed to give Israel assurances that include the right to military action against imminent threats and to disrupt the establishment of a Hezbollah presence or heavy weapons smuggling near the border.
U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce the cease-fire on Tuesday if approved. “We think we have a deal,” a U.S. official told Axios, adding, “We are on the goal line, but we haven’t passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday, and something can always go wrong until then.”
Despite cease-fire talks inching to a close, cross-border strikes have continued between Israeli and Hezbollah forces—and some experts worry that one wrong move could upend the dialogue. On Saturday, an Israeli strike on Beirut killed more than 29 people and injured more than 65 others. Three Israeli defense officials told the New York Times that the attack aimed to assassinate a top Hezbollah military commander, Mohammad Haidar, though one official said Haidar was not killed.
In response, Hezbollah fired around 250 projectiles into Israel on Sunday in one of the largest aerial attacks against the country in the past year. On Monday, Hezbollah launched another 40 rockets at northern Israel. More than 3,700 Lebanese have been killed and another 15,000 wounded since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resurged with the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict last October.
“We have a real opportunity to bring conflict to an end. The window is now,” U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Amos Hochstein said last week. But a truce deal, he said, is ultimately “the decision of the parties” involved.